Play-In is the NBA's answer to so many questions

The regular season has barely come to an end with the last games taking place at the same time this weekend and the NBA is already back on the court. Over the next two nights, the Magic-Hawks and Warriors-Grizzlies tonight, Bulls-Heat and Kings-Mavs tomorrow night are on the schedule: the first four challenges of the play-in tournament, the unpredictable and adrenaline-fuelled crossroads that has marked the transition from the regular season to the play-offs over the past five years.

The Play-In Tournament, which was temporarily introduced in 2020 but soon turned out to be far more than just a patch, is now a crucial hub of the NBA season. Not only because of its dimension as an event within an event, but also because of the new cards on the table that the introduction of a mini-tournament with four playoff spots brings with it: a new bracket and a new pole of gravity for the league (competitive structure, schedule, visibility), for the 30 franchises (and their respective season goals), for the whole world (media, audience) and the logic (of product, revenue) of the sidelines.

To dive into the discourse, it may be useful to rewind the tape from the beginning, i.e. from the height of the pandemic in the summer when the NBA was barricaded in the Orlando bubble and the play-in was shown to the public for the first time.

How the Play-In Tournament came about

The format was born in the unusual context that the 2019/20 regular season was suspended in early March, put on standby for a few months and then resumed in the bubble, with invitations reserved for 22 teams. At that point, the NBA needed an idea to quickly assemble the playoff roster and close out the season in an inherently unexciting context. A way to create sporting meaning and continuity and combine the need to package as attractive a product as possible with the performance-based criteria of the roster. And there is the play-in.

The introduction of some dry knockout games had been on Adam Silver's mind for some time. Even before the bubble, the commissioner had mentioned it among the possible reform scenarios and explained more than once the benefits it would bring to the whole structure. 2020 presented itself as the perfect opportunity for a test. A rule was then introduced that would apply to both conferences: if the ninth-place team came within four games of the eighth-place team, as was the case in the West, a playoff would be held for the final playoff spot. With a clear, perhaps too great an advantage for the eighth-place finisher, who was granted two lives in practise, as a deciding Game 2 would be played if the ninth-place finisher won; a means to offset the impossibility of increasing the home factor within the bubble, a problem that would solve itself with the return to normalcy.

Apart from this imbalance, the initial feedback was positive in every respect. Both in terms of spectator numbers and interest, as well as feedback from fans and insiders about the unquantifiable but tangible contribution to the appeal of the regular season finale. In short, enough to export the Play-In outside Disney World and confirm the format for next season. Since the second edition, there has been a clearer formula: Seventh against eighth for the first round, and the loser has one last chance in the play-off against whoever wins between ninth and tenth. A table that offered a challenge of enormous visibility and media appeal when it debuted, generating record-breaking numbers to this day, namely the head-to-head final between LeBron James and Steph Curry, a sure bet for the NBA - and lifeblood for the identity, popularity and, in a sense, legitimacy of the new playoffs. Since then, the play-in is no longer just an interim solution or an experiment, but the rule. And it will remain so, as Adam Silver reminds us at every opportunity.

How it offers solution to the RS

First and foremost, the play-in has the advantage of bringing new incentives to a very long 82-game regular season and has long struggled to provide the public with games that - if not all, at leastmost - count for something and have meaning. It's a longstanding concern of the league to give even March and early April basketball value and meaning, and to give those cruising in the lower regions of the standings a glimpse of the finish line and an incentive. And in this regard, the play-in, thanks to which only five out of 15 teams per conference are out of the running at the end of the regular season, has made a big contribution.

In 2021, Silver smugly pointed out how the introduction of the playoffs has improved the final weeks of the calendar by keeping up to 24 teams in contention until the photo finish. Of course, that's a number that fluctuates from year to year - the season just ended didn't offer a sizzling finish, for example, especially not in the East - and in any case, it would be wrong to think that the play-in has solved the problem of tanking (in short, playing to lose and thus having the highest possible pick at the draft); if anything, it has mitigated its negative impact on the field and offered an alternative to organizations potentially losing out during the season. And from a strategic standpoint, it's been a good indicator for the league to hear about “front offices determined to bolster the roster to make the play-in” for the past few years on the market.

Last but not least, there are the games. “Win or go home” matches are gold for a league that has always watered down the pathos of the playoffs over long best-of-seven series after the perennial regular season. This is also the reason why the NBA has modelled itself on the likes of the NFL, the NCAA and the Euroleague: all competitions that thrive on the strength of the knockout round. And the data collected in the first five editions of the play-in tells us in no uncertain terms that it was the right decision.

The boom in viewership

Attendance figures for the play-in tournament have risen steadily in recent years. The highlight was the aforementioned game between the Lakersand Warriors in 2021, which set the all-time record for a playoff with 5.6 million viewers in the US on ESPN. From then on, the format has held up despite inevitable fluctuations and established itself as one of the highlights of the NBA television season.

In 2023, for example, the average audience - again in the United States - was 2.6 million viewers for the play-in games, 14% more than the previous year. In 2024, the record was set: an average of 3.2 million viewers (+22%) for the six games broadcast by TNT, truTV, ESPN and ESPN2. A success that was mainly possible thanks to the two “big markets” involved: the Golden State Warriors (against the Kings, 4.1 million viewers) and the Los Angeles Lakers (against the Pelicans, 3.9) had the second and third most viewers respectively in the still young history of the tournament. Overall, the five play-in nights involving San Francisco and Los Angeles were the five most-watched overall. And that's no coincidence, but a clear trend: interest in the play-ins mirrors interest in the names, markets and fan bases that end up in the playoffs.

In addition to the ratings, there is another aspect that makes the play-in a valuable event: the direct revenue. One off games played at home are events that drive viewership, ticket sales and business activity close to the playoffs. So for a franchise, a play-in contest can be worth millions.

The format impact

Of course, not everyone is enthusiastic about play-ins. The first objection from the beginning has been “sports equity,” or the possibility of a seventh-place team being eliminated in a single game against the tenth-place team, which may have had ten fewer wins in the regular season. The original rule required a maximum four-game gap to make the playoffs and was designed to prevent just that; however, since the play-in, the difference in the standings is no longer a protection.

Adam Silver acknowledged the problem. “I understand the frustration, especially from teams that finish in seventh place,” he said in 2021, ”but I think everyone recognises how much extra interest the play-in has generated in the season finale. And the balance in terms of attention and benefits is more than positive for everyone.” Indeed, the benefits cannot be overlooked. For the league, the play-in has led to a 15% increase in attendance in the final month of the regular season, precisely because more teams are now fighting to get back into the top ten. For the franchises, this means more revenue and visibility, for the audience a goal to reach and surpass, and for the broadcasters, additional quality content.

Unsurprisingly, the American-structured play-in has become a model emulated by other competitions, such as the Euroleague, which has introduced an identical formula (play-offs between seventh, eighth, ninth and tenth) from 2023. So you could say that from 2020, Adam Silver and co. have turned a conditional need into a great experiment and thus into a competitive innovation. Yes, once again the NBA - before it is even a basketball league -has proven to be a dollar machine that values content, turns restrictions into opportunities and inspires developments in global sport.